Question Of The Month –July,  2009

              How Long Will You Live?

The way longevity has been increasing in the past few decades, it’s not uncommon to live to  85, 90 or even crack the century mark.  If recent trends continue, the population will experience further longevity gains as medical advances result in more and more cures for fatal diseases.

Females born in 1900 were expected to live on average to age 48 and males to age 46. By 1950, life expectancy for females had surged to 71 and for males to 65.  And by the end of the century, females could expect, on average, to live to 80 and males to 74.

Improvements in Life Expectancy over the Past Century:  Life expectancy is defined as the average total number of years that a human expects to live.  So, for a female born today with a life expectancy of 80, there’s a 50% chance that she’ll die before age 80 and a 50% chance that she’ll live beyond 80.

Throughout most of the 20th century, the gap between life expectancies of males and females expanded, but that gap began to shrink slightly about 10 years ago as males started to catch up.

A study of blue-collar and white-collar workers indicated the gap in life expectancies between the two worker groups was even greater than the gap between the genders.

Life expectancy will continue to improve and mostly at the later ages.  Up to about age 50, death rates are very, very low, and so there’s not much room for improvement.  But for older people, gains in life expectancy are still occurring at the fairly rapid pace of 1.5% to 2% every five years--that’s for the general population of 65-year-olds.

A healthy 65-year old couple have a 50% chance that one of them will live to 92, meaning half of those survivors will live even longer.  For an estimate of your longevity based on factors such as your lifestyle and family health history, check out the Longevity Game calculator at Northwestern Mutual at northwesternmutual.com  (learning center).  You will find a number of additional calculators by doing a search for “longevity calculators” at google.com.

How Long Will You Live ----Life Expectancy Table

Use this table to help determine how long you may need to plan for.

Age Today           Male      Female

23        51.6              57.2

28        47.0              52.3

33        42.3              47.5

38        37.7              42.7

40        35.9             40.7

43        33.2             38.0

45        31.5             36.1

48        28.8             33.4

50        27.2             31.5

53        24.6             28.9

55        23.1             27.1

58        20.6             24.6

60        19.2             22.9

63        16.8             20.6

65        15.7             19.0

68        13.6             16.8

70        12.6             15.3

73        10.6             13.04

75        9.8               12.0

78        8.0               10.2

80        7.3                8.9

83        7.1                9.1

85        5.4                6.4

88        4.2                5.3

Source:  U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report

“While the average American now lives to 77 (up from 64 in 1940), a man who reaches 65actually has a 50% chance of living to 83 while a 65 year-old woman of living to 85.  Moreover, for a 65 year old married couple, there’s a 50% chance that at least one spouse will reach 90.  The upshot is that even someone on the brink of retirement should keep 30% to 50% of his portfolio in stocks to insure that he doesn’t outlive his money.” 

Source:  Fortune magazine 6/22/2009.